What Were US Motives for Targeting Iraq’s PMF?

As Reported by Qods News Agency (Qodsna) The strike, which followed a series of aerial attacks against PMF forces blamed on Israel and the US, left at least 25 fighters dead and dozens more injured.

This was the first time the US officially took responsibility for the attack. A US statement on Sunday said the US hit three of the group’s sites in Iraq and two in Syria, including weapon depots and the group’s command and control bases.

According to a US Defense Department statement, the attack was a response to a Friday rocket attack that killed an American contractor at a military compound near Kirkuk in northern Iraq. US officials said attackers fired as many as 30 rockets in Friday’s assault.

Hezbollah Brigades are led by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces.

Javad Salehi Tabar, in an opinion piece published by the Persian service of Qodsna, summarizes possible motives for US attacks against PMF units as follows:

1.  
2. Fueling unrest: The strikes come as months of political turmoil roil Iraq and dozens of people have died in anti-government protests in recent months. Concurrently, rumors are rife that remaining ISIS elements in Iraq are preparing to launch fresh attacks in the coming months. The move could inject fresh blood into ISIS and other groups involved in recent unrests in Iraq, including Baathists and followers of Mahmoud al-Sarkhi and Ahmad al-Hassan
3. Pushing for early elections: The recent demonstrations prompted the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi late last month. Abdul-Mahdi remains for new in a caretaker capacity. The US is apparently willing to push for early elections in Iraq to see Abdul-Mahdi ousted as soon as possible.
4. Polarizing Iraq: The US has stressed the attack was a response to an earlier attack to a US base in Kirkuk and that they would not allow Iran-backed groups to threaten US forces. Such statements are aimed at polarizing the Iraqi society, reinforcing a US message that Iran’s influence is threatening Iraq.
5. Disintegrating Iraq: The US might have reached a conclusion that a united Iraq won’t serve its interests. This attack might be aimed at drawing a response from Iraqis that could justify US sanctions against Baghdad. Ultimately, Washington could enable the disintegration of Iraq by supporting the separation of Iraqi Kurdistan.
6. Protecting US prestige: Analysts believe the attack could help the US protect its prestige following several incident detrimental to its interests in the region, including the downing of US drone in the Persian Gulf, attacks against Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia and attacks against ships in the UAE’s Fujairah. Washington blamed all of them on Iran, but has not responded to them. The US inaction has pushed allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to distance themselves from Washington and seek negotiations with Iran. This could be the official end of the anti-Iran “maximum pressure” campaign by Trump.
7. Boosting Netanyahu’s campaign: The Trump administration also seeks to boost the reelection campaign of Israeli Premier Benyamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has portrayed himself as the top protector of the regime and has vowed to stand up to Iran. Israel has several times targeted PMF unites in recent months.  The US attack would strengthen Netanyahu’s position and boost his reelection campaign.
8. Downplaying Iran’s joint drill: The attack was carried out just after Iran, China and Russia started a joint naval drill in Sea of Oman. The world sees the drills as a show of power by Iran and a threat to the US hegemony. The US might be motivated to downplay the drill and its political, military and economic effects.

Turning Point?

Salehi Tabar also wrote that the attacks could be a turning point in the history of US presence in Iraq since 2003, as this is the first time US officially takes responsibility for such an attack inside Iraq.

Salehi Tabar believes the attack could turn over 5,000 US forces in Iraq into legitimate targets in a chaotic environment. 

Moreover, according to the analyst, the attack could persuade Iraq to purchase air defense systems from Russia and Iran. Such a move could infuriate the US and deepen differences between Baghdad and

Washington.

The attack has caused big controversy surrounding the US role in the country, with Iraqi groups from various persuasions condemning the attack and calling for the US withdrawal from Iraq.

The Iraqi government condemned the US strike, with the prime minister calling it a violation of Iraqi sovereignty and a “dangerous escalation that threatens the security of Iraq and the region.”

In a statement on Sunday, Hezbollah Brigades threatened its battle with the US is "now open to all possibilities”. "We have no alternative today other than confrontation and there is nothing that will prevent us from responding to this crime."